Prediction of Surrey Heath Euro results

The polls have now closed but we will have to wait 3 days to know how the Surrey Heath jury have voted in the Eurovision contest. Having completely failed to predict the Surrey PCC result, this is a very rough guide to how the Surrey Heath parties are likely to fare this year.

The starting point is last year’s County elections which resulted in the following:-

Con 48.3% – 8340 votes
UKIP 26.9% – 4646
Lab 15.9% – 2739
Lib Dem 8.9% – 1531 (although only stood in 4 of 6 wards)

Guessing is complicated by a couple of factors namely that these are European rather than local elections and also by the fact that there are 15 parties taking part including the Greens and a number of fringe parties that were not available at the County elections.

Although Surrey Heath will not officially declare (as we are part of the wider South East result), my guess is as follows:-

Con – around 37%
UKIP – around 33%
Lab – around 12%
Lib Dem – around 7%
Green – around 7%
Independence 4 Europe – 3%
Others – 1% (combined)
Overall turnout – around 30%

I still expect the Cons to get the most votes in Surrey Heath as they have a far bigger and better electoral machine than UKIP who have relied on national coverage. That said, UKIP should increase their local % of the vote at the expense of other parties.

Will try to tweet the Surrey Heath numbers on Sunday night to see how close this is….

UPDATE – 24/04 – The Surrey Heath turnout was 33.21% . Converting the above percentages into number of votes gives predicted numbers of ..

Con 7925
UKIP 7275
Lab 2550
Lib Dem 1500
Green 1500
Others 850

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3 thoughts on “Prediction of Surrey Heath Euro results

  1. Nick B Scales

    Given the fact the Green Party of England & Wales came second in wards contested in Hart DC and Rushmoor BC I think you are seriously underestimating the GPEW percentage of the vote. In Surrey Heath our campaigning in the Watchetts ward and Frimley & Frimley Green area indicate strong support amongst disgruntled Lib Dems, Labour and Conservative voters. We convincingly beat Labour in Farnborough, North Camp & Hartley Wintney and successfully defended Reading Wards. Given that locally our activist base is smaller than a Labour Branch like Farnham and our Finances are significantly lower and all from donations from members not Corporate interests and large Trade Unions this is no mean feat. To pull off a 2nd place local council win having only formed the local Party a month riot t the Election in my most mind is not an insignificant achievement. However having no national press in our pocket we can’t shout our propaganda as easily as Conservative, Labour or UKIP. Be prepared for a shock in Monday’s press.

    Reply
    1. rodneybates Post author

      My prediction of 7% would mean the Greens picking up 1500 votes in Surrey Heath. If anything, I expect that to be on the high side but we will find out tomorrow.

      Reply
  2. Nick B Scales

    Any vote that gets Keith Taylor re-elected is good for us. Though Labour’s Anna-Lise Dodds deserves to take over from Peter Skinner. That will give the South East 2 decent MEP’s. I worry that Farrage, Atkinson & James will win and wreck the UK’ s position in the parliament.

    Reply

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