The polls have now closed but we will have to wait 3 days to know how the Surrey Heath jury have voted in the Eurovision contest. Having completely failed to predict the Surrey PCC result, this is a very rough guide to how the Surrey Heath parties are likely to fare this year.
The starting point is last year’s County elections which resulted in the following:-
Con 48.3% – 8340 votes
UKIP 26.9% – 4646
Lab 15.9% – 2739
Lib Dem 8.9% – 1531 (although only stood in 4 of 6 wards)
Guessing is complicated by a couple of factors namely that these are European rather than local elections and also by the fact that there are 15 parties taking part including the Greens and a number of fringe parties that were not available at the County elections.
Although Surrey Heath will not officially declare (as we are part of the wider South East result), my guess is as follows:-
Con – around 37%
UKIP – around 33%
Lab – around 12%
Lib Dem – around 7%
Green – around 7%
Independence 4 Europe – 3%
Others – 1% (combined)
Overall turnout – around 30%
I still expect the Cons to get the most votes in Surrey Heath as they have a far bigger and better electoral machine than UKIP who have relied on national coverage. That said, UKIP should increase their local % of the vote at the expense of other parties.
Will try to tweet the Surrey Heath numbers on Sunday night to see how close this is….
UPDATE – 24/04 – The Surrey Heath turnout was 33.21% . Converting the above percentages into number of votes gives predicted numbers of ..
Lib Dem 1500